Stoke City v Preston: analysis and our pick
Championship · tomorrow 14:30 · bet365 Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Stoke City in good form
Stoke City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Bristol City and a 1–0 away win at Derby. Preston have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with West Brom and a 1–4 away defeat at Wrexham.
An even head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Stoke City, 3 draws, 1 for Preston, with 1.8 goals a game. Most recently: Preston 3–1 Stoke City (20 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Stoke City score 1.4 and concede 1.0 a game, Preston 0.8 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 0.9 = 2.7 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Stoke City · 58%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 77%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Stoke City have the highest probability (58%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 77% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Stoke City — last game: Against Bristol City (0-0) they had 58% of the shots (11 to 8, on target 1-0) and 63% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs. Preston — last game: Against West Brom (1-1) they had 47% of the shots (18 to 20, on target 4-6) and 28% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 6 on target. 30′–45′: under 89% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 72% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 71% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 27% of the shots on target. They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.