Standard Liege v Kortrijk: analysis and our pick

Standard Liege looking for a response

Standard Liege have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Genk and a 2–0 home win over Dender. Kortrijk have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Genk and a 2–2 away draw with Heist.

The head-to-head favours Kortrijk

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Standard Liege, 1 draw, 3 for Kortrijk, with 1.4 goals a game. Most recently: Standard Liege 1–0 Kortrijk (10 Jan 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 40%. Standard Liege score 0.8 and concede 1.4 a game, Kortrijk 0.6 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 0.9 = 2.3 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 70% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Standard Liege · 47%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 70%: the model expects 2.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Standard Liege have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Standard Liege — last game: Away to Genk (1-2) they had 33% of the shots (10 to 20, on target 2-5) and 31% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 🟥 Red card on 33′ for Standard Liege (M. Epolo): they played with ten for ~57 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Genk (D. Heymans): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 49% of the shots and 35% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents. Kortrijk — last game: Away to Genk (0-3) they had 38% of the shots (8 to 13, on target 1-6). From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 6 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Kortrijk). Over the last 4 they averaged 49% of the shots and 36% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 10% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 4.00 → 4.33 (+8.3%, drifting) · 2 (Kortrijk) 4.75 → 5.00 (+5.3%, drifting) · Both teams score 1.70 → 1.75 (+2.9%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.80 → 3.90 (+2.6%, drifting).