SK Beveren v Union St. Gilloise: analysis and our pick

Union St. Gilloise have a chance to respond

SK Beveren have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–4 away draw with KVC Westerlo and a 3–0 home win over Habay-la-Neuve. Union St. Gilloise have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 5–2 home win over Cercle Brugge and a 4–0 home win over Hapoel Beer Sheva.

The head-to-head favours Union St. Gilloise

In the last 3 meetings: 1 win for SK Beveren, 0 draws, 2 for Union St. Gilloise, with 4.3 goals a game. Most recently: SK Beveren 0–2 Union St. Gilloise (7 Dec 2023).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 35%. SK Beveren score 2.0 and concede 1.6 a game, Union St. Gilloise 2.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 2.1 = 3.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 88% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Union St. Gilloise · 50%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 69%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 88%: the model expects 3.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Union St. Gilloise have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 69% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

SK Beveren — last game: Away to KVC Westerlo (4-4) they had 52% of the shots (16 to 15, on target 7-6) and 50% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 4 from 6 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for KVC Westerlo (R. Laalaoui): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 10′. 15′–30′: under 78% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → goal on 33′, conceded on 45′. Over the last 4 they averaged 40% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target. They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Union St. Gilloise — last game: Against Cercle Brugge (5-2) they had 81% of the shots (22 to 5, on target 11-2) and 65% possession. From 11 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 64′ for Cercle Brugge (D. Vanzeir): the opponent played with ten for ~26 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 74% of the shots and 79% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 4). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (SK Beveren) 5.50 → 6.25 (+13.6%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.38 → 2.25 (-5.5%, backed) · Double chance 1X 2.50 → 2.62 (+4.8%, drifting) · 2 (Union St. Gilloise) 1.50 → 1.44 (-4%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.