Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig: analysis and our pick

Schalke 04 looking for a response

Schalke 04 have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Dynamo Dresden and a 0–0 away draw with 1. FC Köln. RB Leipzig have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Rot-Weiß Essen and a 4–0 home win over SV Elversberg.

The head-to-head favours RB Leipzig

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Schalke 04, 0 draws, 5 for RB Leipzig, with 5.0 goals a game. Most recently: RB Leipzig 4–2 Schalke 04 (27 May 2023).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 40%. Schalke 04 score 0.4 and concede 1.0 a game, RB Leipzig 1.8 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 81% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · RB Leipzig · 37%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 81%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: RB Leipzig have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Schalke 04 — last game: Away to Dynamo Dresden (0-2) they had 44% of the shots (8 to 10, on target 4-2) and 48% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 77% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 53′. 60′–75′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 35% of the shots on target. They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. RB Leipzig — last game: Away to Rot-Weiß Essen (2-1) they had 55% of the shots (11 to 9, on target 2-1) and 63% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 1 on target. 🟥 Red card on 44′ for RB Leipzig (Nicolas Seiwald): they played with ten for ~46 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 6.00 → 5.00 (-16.7%, backed) · Over 3.5 2.10 → 2.30 (+9.5%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.75 → 2.50 (-9.1%, backed) · Under 3.5 1.73 → 1.62 (-6.4%, backed).