Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo: analysis and our pick

Celta Vigo have a chance to respond

Rayo Vallecano have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–2 away win at Recreativo Huelva and a 0–3 home defeat to Elche. Celta Vigo have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Real Betis and a 2–1 away win at Celtic.

The head-to-head favours Rayo Vallecano

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 2 draws, 1 for Celta Vigo, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Celta Vigo 3–0 Rayo Vallecano (18 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 70%. Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Celta Vigo 1.0 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.2 = 2.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 66% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Celta Vigo · 37%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 66%: the model expects 2.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Celta Vigo have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Rayo Vallecano — last game: Away to Recreativo Huelva (3-2) they had 77% of the shots (34 to 10, on target 8-4) and 70% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 41′ for Recreativo Huelva (R. Riera): the opponent played with ten for ~49 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 🟥 Red card on 108′ for Rayo Vallecano (F. Lejeune): they played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–17′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → goal on 43′. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 3 for opponents. Celta Vigo — last game: Against Real Betis (0-0) they had 44% of the shots (12 to 15, on target 4-2) and 44% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 36% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.