PSV Eindhoven v Willem II: analysis and our pick

Willem II have a chance to respond

PSV Eindhoven have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Feyenoord and a 1–0 away win at FC Porto. Willem II have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 4–3 away win at Helmond Sport and a 1–6 home defeat to Cambuur.

The head-to-head favours PSV Eindhoven

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 draw, 1 for Willem II, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Willem II (8 Feb 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 75%. PSV Eindhoven score 1.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Willem II 1.6 and 3.2. The Poisson model expects 2.5 + 1.3 = 3.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 90% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · PSV Eindhoven · 64%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 2–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 90%: the model expects 3.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: PSV Eindhoven have the highest probability (64%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

PSV Eindhoven — last game: Against Feyenoord (1-1) they had 58% of the shots (18 to 13, on target 6-9) and 52% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 9 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 26% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 14% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs. Willem II — last game: Away to Helmond Sport (4-3) they had 50% of the shots (13 to 13, on target 4-5) and 59% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 3 from 5 on target. 🟥 Red card on 78′ for Willem II (J. Slory): they played with ten for ~12 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 31% of the shots on target. They turn 53% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance X2 9.00 → 7.00 (-22.2%, backed) · Under 1.5 17.00 → 15.00 (-11.8%, backed) · X (draw) 12.00 → 13.00 (+8.3%, drifting) · Under 2.5 6.00 → 5.50 (-8.3%, backed).