Motherwell v ST Mirren: analysis and our pick
Premiership · today 17:00 · Fir Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Motherwell looking for a response
Motherwell have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with ST Johnstone and a 0–2 home defeat to Hearts. ST Mirren have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Hibernian and a 2–1 home win over Dundee.
The head-to-head favours Motherwell
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Motherwell, 2 draws, 1 for ST Mirren, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: ST Mirren 3–3 Motherwell (30 Aug 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 55%. Motherwell score 1.0 and concede 2.2 a game, ST Mirren 0.8 and 2.6. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.6 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 86% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Motherwell · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 86%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Motherwell have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Motherwell — last game: Away to ST Johnstone (2-2) they had 53% of the shots (17 to 15, on target 9-3) and 44% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: under 89% of the pressure → conceded on 19′. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 34′. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 19% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5. ST Mirren — last game: Against Hibernian (1-1) they had 55% of the shots (11 to 9, on target 3-1) and 42% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 37% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 5.00 → 4.50 (-10%, backed) · X (draw) 3.80 → 4.00 (+5.3%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.50 → 2.62 (+4.8%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.38 → 2.30 (-3.4%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.