Moreirense v Estrela: analysis and our pick

Estrela have a chance to respond

Moreirense have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Estoril and a 0–1 away defeat at AVS. Estrela have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Casa Pia and a 2–1 away win at Fazendense.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Moreirense, 3 draws, 1 for Estrela, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Moreirense 3–2 Estrela (2 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Moreirense score 1.4 and concede 1.0 a game, Estrela 1.0 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.6 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Estrela · 37%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Estrela have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Moreirense — last game: Away to Estoril (3-1) they had 35% of the shots (13 to 24, on target 4-5) and 43% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 79% of the pressure → goal on 28′. 30′–45′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 89% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Red cards: 1 theirs. Estrela — last game: Against Casa Pia (0-2) they had 64% of the shots (18 to 10, on target 6-4) and 63% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 82% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 64% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 53% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 3.40 → 3.75 (+10.3%, drifting) · Under 2.5 1.85 → 1.70 (-8.1%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.95 → 2.10 (+7.7%, drifting) · 1 (Moreirense) 2.80 → 3.00 (+7.1%, drifting).