Lincoln v Birmingham: analysis and our pick

Lincoln looking for a response

Lincoln have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over Burnley and a 2–2 away draw with Millwall. Birmingham have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Cardiff and a 3–0 home win over QPR.

The head-to-head favours Birmingham

In the last 3 meetings: 0 wins for Lincoln, 0 draws, 3 for Birmingham, with 2.7 goals a game. Most recently: Birmingham 1–0 Lincoln (8 Mar 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 50%. Lincoln score 1.4 and concede 2.8 a game, Birmingham 2.0 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.9 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 77% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Birmingham · 59%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 77%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Birmingham have the highest probability (59%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Lincoln — last game: Against Burnley (4-1) they had 75% of the shots (21 to 7, on target 7-4) and 51% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 35% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 45% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 2 theirs. Birmingham — last game: Away to Cardiff (0-1) they had 30% of the shots (7 to 16, on target 2-4) and 48% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.50 → 3.75 (+7.1%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.33 → 1.36 (+2.3%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.70 → 1.67 (-1.8%, backed) · Over 1.5 1.30 → 1.28 (-1.5%, backed).