Levante v Atletico Madrid: analysis and our pick
La Liga · tomorrow 15:00 · Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Atletico Madrid have a chance to respond
Levante have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Real Sociedad and a 3–1 home win over Athletic Club. Atletico Madrid have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Deportivo La Coruna and a 1–1 away draw with VfB Stuttgart.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 55%. Levante score 1.8 and concede 2.0 a game, Atletico Madrid 1.4 and 0.4. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.8 = 3.6 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Atletico Madrid · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 70%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Atletico Madrid have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 70% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Levante — last game: Away to Real Sociedad (1-2) they had 26% of the shots (6 to 17, on target 2-3) and 38% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target. They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. Atletico Madrid — last game: Against Deportivo La Coruna (1-0) they had 59% of the shots (20 to 14, on target 4-4) and 56% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 13% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.