Kocaelispor v Rizespor: analysis and our pick

Kocaelispor in good form

Kocaelispor have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Mazıdağı Fosfatspor and a 2–1 away win at Alanyaspor. Rizespor have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–4 home defeat to Trabzonspor and a 1–2 away defeat at Çorum FK.

An even head-to-head

In the last 3 meetings: 1 win for Kocaelispor, 1 draw, 1 for Rizespor, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Rizespor 2–0 Kocaelispor (20 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 40%. Kocaelispor score 1.8 and concede 1.0 a game, Rizespor 1.8 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.2 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 75% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Kocaelispor · 41%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 75%: the model expects 2.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Kocaelispor have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Kocaelispor — last game: Away to Alanyaspor (2-1) they had 71% of the shots (17 to 7, on target 5-4) and 51% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 55% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Rizespor — last game: Against Trabzonspor (3-4) they had 39% of the shots (9 to 14, on target 6-7) and 46% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 4 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Kocaelispor) 2.50 → 2.75 (+10%, drifting) · 2 (Rizespor) 2.55 → 2.38 (-6.7%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.50 → 1.44 (-4%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.50 → 1.53 (+2%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.