Kilmarnock v ST Johnstone: analysis and our pick

Kilmarnock looking for a response

Kilmarnock have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Dundee and a 0–3 away defeat at Falkirk. ST Johnstone have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Motherwell and a 0–4 away defeat at Rangers.

The head-to-head favours ST Johnstone

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Kilmarnock, 0 draws, 3 for ST Johnstone, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: ST Johnstone 4–3 Kilmarnock (2 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 55%. Kilmarnock score 1.2 and concede 2.4 a game, ST Johnstone 1.0 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.7 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 82% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · ST Johnstone · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 82%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: ST Johnstone have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Kilmarnock — last game: Away to Dundee (1-3) they had 50% of the shots (15 to 15, on target 3-5) and 54% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 5 on target. 30′–45′: under 80% of the pressure → conceded on 32′. 45′–60′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → goal on 75′. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 35% of the shots on target. They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 46% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. ST Johnstone — last game: Against Motherwell (2-2) they had 47% of the shots (15 to 17, on target 3-9) and 56% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 9 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: pressed with 89% of the pressure → goal on 19′. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 34′. Over the last 5 they averaged 36% of the shots and 32% of the shots on target. They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 2 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (ST Johnstone) 2.30 → 2.88 (+25.2%, drifting) · 1 (Kilmarnock) 2.75 → 2.30 (-16.4%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.40 → 1.57 (+12.1%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.57 → 1.40 (-10.8%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.