Kifisia v Olympiacos: analysis and our pick
Super League 1 · today 19:00 · Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Kifisia in good form
Kifisia have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Asteras Tripolis and a 3–2 away win at Iraklis 1908. Olympiacos have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Marko and a 5–0 home win over Kalamata.
The head-to-head favours Olympiacos
In the last 4 meetings: 0 wins for Kifisia, 1 draw, 3 for Olympiacos, with 3.8 goals a game. Most recently: Olympiacos 1–1 Kifisia (20 Dec 2025).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 35%. Kifisia score 2.0 and concede 1.0 a game, Olympiacos 2.2 and 0.0. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.5 = 2.4 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 70% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Olympiacos · 51%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 70%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Olympiacos have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Kifisia — last game: Away to Iraklis 1908 (3-2) they had 64% of the shots (14 to 8, on target 6-2) and 59% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 2 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 53% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Olympiacos — last game: Against Kalamata (5-0) they had 85% of the shots (17 to 3, on target 10-2) and 74% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 63% of the shots and 71% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 0% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.50 → 3.75 (+7.1%, drifting) · 2 (Olympiacos) 1.44 → 1.48 (+2.8%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.90 → 1.85 (-2.6%, backed) · Under 2.5 1.90 → 1.95 (+2.6%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.