Hull City v Ipswich: analysis and our pick
Premier League · today 17:00 · MKM Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Ipswich have a chance to respond
Hull City have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Brentford and a 0–1 away defeat at Fulham. Ipswich have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Nottingham Forest and a 2–3 away defeat at Manchester City.
The head-to-head favours Ipswich
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Hull City, 1 draw, 4 for Ipswich, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Ipswich 1–0 Hull City (3 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 65%. Hull City score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game, Ipswich 1.4 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.4 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Hull City · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Hull City have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Hull City — last game: Against Brentford (1-1) they had 46% of the shots (12 to 14, on target 2-6) and 42% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 34% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 26% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Ipswich — last game: Against Nottingham Forest (1-1) they had 29% of the shots (7 to 17, on target 3-5) and 49% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 36% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target. They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Hull City) 2.55 → 2.80 (+9.8%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.50 → 1.40 (-6.7%, backed) · Under 1.5 4.00 → 3.75 (-6.2%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.80 → 1.91 (+6.1%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.