Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen: analysis and our pick

Heerenveen in good form

Heerenveen have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Excelsior Maassluis and a 3–2 away win at ADO Den Haag. NEC Nijmegen have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Groningen and a 4–2 away win at Dinamo Zagreb.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Heerenveen, 1 draw, 2 for NEC Nijmegen, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Heerenveen (22 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Heerenveen score 2.6 and concede 0.8 a game, NEC Nijmegen 2.0 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.5 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Heerenveen · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: Heerenveen have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Heerenveen — last game: Away to Excelsior Maassluis (2-0) they had 63% of the shots (12 to 7, on target 7-2) and 73% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → goal on 63′, 75′. 75′–90′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 73% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. NEC Nijmegen — last game: Against Groningen (2-2) they had 71% of the shots (22 to 9, on target 9-3) and 59% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 7.00 → 8.00 (+14.3%, drifting) · Under 2.5 3.10 → 3.40 (+9.7%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.73 → 1.80 (+4%, drifting) · 1 (Heerenveen) 2.05 → 2.10 (+2.4%, drifting).