Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard: analysis and our pick
Eredivisie · today 17:30 · Stadion Feijenoord. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Feyenoord in good form
Feyenoord have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with PSV Eindhoven and a 0–1 away defeat at Real Betis. Fortuna Sittard have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Sparta Rotterdam and a 1–0 home win over Excelsior.
The head-to-head favours Feyenoord
In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Feyenoord, 1 draw, 0 for Fortuna Sittard, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Fortuna Sittard 1–2 Feyenoord (3 May 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 65%. Feyenoord score 2.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Fortuna Sittard 1.6 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.3 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 86% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Feyenoord · 51%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 86%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Feyenoord have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Feyenoord — last game: Away to PSV Eindhoven (1-1) they had 42% of the shots (13 to 18, on target 9-6) and 48% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Fortuna Sittard — last game: Away to Sparta Rotterdam (2-2) they had 42% of the shots (14 to 19, on target 5-6) and 40% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 6 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 40% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target. They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Fortuna Sittard) 13.00 → 15.00 (+15.4%, drifting) · Under 1.5 9.00 → 10.00 (+11.1%, drifting) · Double chance X2 5.50 → 5.00 (-9.1%, backed) · X (draw) 7.50 → 8.00 (+6.7%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.