Fenerbahce v Goztepe: analysis and our pick

Goztepe have a chance to respond

Fenerbahce have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Galatasaray and a 2–2 home draw with Slavia Praha. Goztepe have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Çorum FK and a 2–1 away win at Kocaelispor.

The head-to-head favours Fenerbahce

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Fenerbahce, 3 draws, 0 for Goztepe, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Fenerbahce 1–1 Goztepe (25 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 55%. Fenerbahce score 1.8 and concede 2.0 a game, Goztepe 2.4 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.7 = 3.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 90% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Fenerbahce · 48%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 90%: the model expects 3.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Fenerbahce have the highest probability (48%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Fenerbahce — last game: Away to Galatasaray (1-2) they had 8% of the shots (2 to 22, on target 2-7) and 37% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 7 on target. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 29′. 30′–45′: under 80% of the pressure → conceded on 44′. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Goztepe — last game: Against Çorum FK (2-0) they had 58% of the shots (15 to 11, on target 7-3) and 38% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 89% of the pressure → goal on 38′. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Goztepe) 8.00 → 6.50 (-18.7%, backed) · Double chance X2 3.40 → 3.00 (-11.8%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.70 → 2.40 (-11.1%, backed) · X (draw) 5.25 → 4.75 (-9.5%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.