FC Augsburg v Freiburg: analysis and our pick

Freiburg have a chance to respond

FC Augsburg have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–2 away win at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and a 1–1 home draw with Union Berlin. Freiburg have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over VfL Wolfsburg and a 1–3 home defeat to Bayern Munich.

The head-to-head favours FC Augsburg

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for FC Augsburg, 2 draws, 1 for Freiburg, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: FC Augsburg 2–2 Freiburg (18 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 85%, both teams scored 75%. FC Augsburg score 2.4 and concede 2.2 a game, Freiburg 1.6 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.6 = 3.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 87% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · FC Augsburg · 43%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 67%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 87%: the model expects 3.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: FC Augsburg have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

FC Augsburg — last game: Away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (4-2) they had 63% of the shots (19 to 11, on target 9-4) and 59% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 0′–15′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 13′. 15′–30′: pressed with 73% of the pressure → goal on 21′, conceded on 22′. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 69′, 74′. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Freiburg — last game: Against VfL Wolfsburg (3-2) they had 74% of the shots (17 to 6, on target 3-2) and 62% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 43′. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 52% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 6.00 → 5.50 (-8.3%, backed) · 1 (FC Augsburg) 3.10 → 2.90 (-6.5%, backed) · 2 (Freiburg) 2.15 → 2.25 (+4.7%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.75 → 2.62 (-4.7%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.