Estac Troyes v Le Mans: analysis and our pick

Estac Troyes looking for a response

Estac Troyes have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Toulouse and a 1–3 home defeat to Lens. Le Mans have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Auxerre and a 0–3 home defeat to Toulouse.

The head-to-head favours Estac Troyes

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Estac Troyes, 2 draws, 1 for Le Mans, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Estac Troyes 0–2 Le Mans (31 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 65%. Estac Troyes score 0.6 and concede 1.8 a game, Le Mans 1.0 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.6 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 82% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Le Mans · 41%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 59%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 82%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Le Mans have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 59% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Estac Troyes — last game: Away to Toulouse (0-0) they had 53% of the shots (8 to 7, on target 0-3) and 37% possession. No shots on target, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 82% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Le Mans — last game: Away to Auxerre (1-1) they had 48% of the shots (11 to 12, on target 2-4) and 40% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 53% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Le Mans) 2.90 → 3.30 (+13.8%, drifting) · Under 1.5 4.00 → 3.50 (-12.5%, backed) · 1 (Estac Troyes) 2.38 → 2.15 (-9.7%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.53 → 1.67 (+9.2%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.