Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK: analysis and our pick
Süper Lig · tomorrow 12:30. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Erzurumspor FK in good form
Erzurumspor FK have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Gaziantep FK and a 2–0 home win over Eyupspor. Çorum FK have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Goztepe and a 2–1 home win over Rizespor.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 40%. Erzurumspor FK score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game, Çorum FK 2.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Çorum FK · 39%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Çorum FK have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Erzurumspor FK — last game: Away to Gaziantep FK (3-1) they had 30% of the shots (8 to 19, on target 2-7) and 38% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 36% of the shots on target. They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Çorum FK — last game: Away to Goztepe (0-2) they had 42% of the shots (11 to 15, on target 3-7) and 62% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 7 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 89% of the pressure → conceded on 38′. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.