Coventry v Sunderland: analysis and our pick

Coventry looking for a response

Coventry have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Fulham and a 1–3 away defeat at Tottenham. Sunderland have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Brentford and a 0–0 home draw with Leeds.

The head-to-head favours Coventry

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Coventry, 2 draws, 1 for Sunderland, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Sunderland 1–1 Coventry (13 May 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. Coventry score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Sunderland 1.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.5 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Coventry · 42%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Coventry have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Coventry — last game: Against Fulham (0-1) they had 54% of the shots (13 to 11, on target 2-3) and 35% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target. They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Sunderland — last game: Against Brentford (3-2) they had 30% of the shots (7 to 16, on target 4-7) and 33% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 7 on target. 0′–15′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 70% of the pressure → conceded on 42′, scored on the break on 39′. 60′–75′: under 83% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.75 → 3.50 (-6.7%, backed) · Both teams score 1.70 → 1.80 (+5.9%, drifting) · 2 (Sunderland) 2.25 → 2.38 (+5.8%, drifting) · Under 2.5 1.91 → 1.80 (-5.8%, backed).