Chelsea v Manchester United: analysis and our pick
Premier League · tomorrow 14:30 · Stamford Bridge. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Manchester United have a chance to respond
Chelsea have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Liverpool and a 0–2 home defeat to Tottenham. Manchester United have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–3 home defeat to Bournemouth and a 1–4 away defeat at Como.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. Chelsea score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Manchester United 0.6 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.4 = 3.4 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Chelsea · 51%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 67%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Chelsea have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Chelsea — last game: Away to Liverpool (1-1) they had 52% of the shots (11 to 10, on target 4-4) and 48% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Manchester United — last game: Against Bournemouth (0-3) they had 62% of the shots (16 to 10, on target 5-4) and 62% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 4 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 16% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.