Cambuur v GO Ahead Eagles: analysis and our pick

Cambuur in good form

Cambuur have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Kloetinge and a 6–1 away win at Willem II. GO Ahead Eagles have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–0 away win at Koninklijke HFC and a 3–2 home win over Telstar.

The head-to-head favours Cambuur

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Cambuur, 2 draws, 1 for GO Ahead Eagles, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Cambuur 4–1 GO Ahead Eagles (5 Mar 2023).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 80%. Cambuur score 2.4 and concede 0.8 a game, GO Ahead Eagles 2.6 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.9 = 4.0 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 92% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Cambuur · 41%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 92%: the model expects 4.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: Cambuur have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Cambuur — last game: Away to Kloetinge (2-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 Red card on 28′ for Kloetinge (S. Schalkwijk): the opponent played with ten for ~62 minutes, from very early on, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. GO Ahead Eagles — last game: Against Telstar (3-2) they had 57% of the shots (16 to 12, on target 7-3) and 45% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 90% of the pressure → goal on 33′. 45′–60′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 48′. Over the last 4 they averaged 50% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Cambuur) 2.88 → 2.55 (-11.5%, backed) · 2 (GO Ahead Eagles) 2.20 → 2.45 (+11.4%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.67 → 1.62 (-3%, backed) · X (draw) 3.80 → 3.90 (+2.6%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.