Brentford v Nottingham Forest: analysis and our pick

Nottingham Forest have a chance to respond

Brentford have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Sunderland and a 1–1 away draw with Hull City. Nottingham Forest have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Ipswich and a 0–1 home defeat to Arsenal.

The head-to-head favours Nottingham Forest

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Brentford, 0 draws, 3 for Nottingham Forest, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Brentford 0–2 Nottingham Forest (25 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 65%. Brentford score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game, Nottingham Forest 0.8 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.2 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 81% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Brentford · 49%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 81%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Brentford have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Brentford — last game: Away to Sunderland (2-3) they had 70% of the shots (16 to 7, on target 7-4) and 67% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 4 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 70% of the pressure → goal on 42′, conceded on 39′. 60′–75′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Nottingham Forest — last game: Away to Ipswich (1-1) they had 71% of the shots (17 to 7, on target 5-3) and 51% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 69% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 5 of 5). They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 37% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Nottingham Forest) 3.60 → 3.30 (-8.3%, backed) · 1 (Brentford) 2.00 → 2.15 (+7.5%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.80 → 1.67 (-7.2%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.25 → 1.33 (+6.4%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.