Bournemouth v Leeds: analysis and our pick

Bournemouth in good form

Bournemouth have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Aston Villa and a 3–0 away win at Manchester United. Leeds have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Sunderland and a 1–1 home draw with Manchester United.

The head-to-head favours Leeds

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Bournemouth, 2 draws, 2 for Leeds, with 4.2 goals a game. Most recently: Bournemouth 2–2 Leeds (22 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 45%. Bournemouth score 2.8 and concede 0.0 a game, Leeds 1.2 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.1 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 76% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Bournemouth · 49%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 50%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 76%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Bournemouth have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 50% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Bournemouth — last game: Against Aston Villa (3-0) they had 53% of the shots (19 to 17, on target 7-5) and 49% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 3, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → goal on 7′. 15′–30′: pressed with 89% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 70% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 69% of the shots and 74% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 0% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. Leeds — last game: Away to Sunderland (0-0) they had 42% of the shots (11 to 15, on target 4-4) and 49% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 78% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: pressed with 81% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 18% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Leeds) 3.50 → 3.60 (+2.9%, drifting) · 1 (Bournemouth) 2.05 → 2.10 (+2.4%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.73 → 1.70 (-1.7%, backed).