Borussia Monchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07: analysis and our pick

SC Paderborn 07 have a chance to respond

Borussia Monchengladbach have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Karlsruher SC and a 3–2 away win at VfB Stuttgart. SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to VfB Stuttgart and a 1–0 home win over Hamburger SV.

The head-to-head favours Borussia Monchengladbach

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Borussia Monchengladbach, 0 draws, 1 for SC Paderborn 07, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: SC Paderborn 07 3–1 Borussia Monchengladbach (17 Jul 2021).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 45%. Borussia Monchengladbach score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game, SC Paderborn 07 0.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.5 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 85% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Borussia Monchengladbach · 44%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 85%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Borussia Monchengladbach have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Borussia Monchengladbach — last game: Against Karlsruher SC (2-0) they had 21% of the shots (4 to 15, on target 3-4) and 36% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 Red card on 39′ for Borussia Monchengladbach (Philipp Sander): they played with ten for ~51 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 7′. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 76′–90′: under 73% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target. They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. SC Paderborn 07 — last game: Against VfB Stuttgart (0-1) they had 50% of the shots (17 to 17, on target 5-4) and 36% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 37′ for SC Paderborn 07 (Laurin Curda): they played with ten for ~53 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 19% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (SC Paderborn 07) 3.50 → 3.00 (-14.3%, backed) · 1 (Borussia Monchengladbach) 1.95 → 2.20 (+12.8%, drifting) · Under 1.5 5.50 → 5.00 (-9.1%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.80 → 1.67 (-7.2%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.