Bologna v Monza: analysis and our pick

Bologna in good form

Bologna have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–2 away win at AC Milan and a 2–0 away win at Cagliari. Monza have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–4 home defeat to Napoli and a 2–3 away defeat at Torino.

The head-to-head favours Bologna

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Bologna, 2 draws, 0 for Monza, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Bologna 3–1 Monza (18 Jan 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 65%. Bologna score 2.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Monza 2.0 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.5 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 86% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Bologna · 45%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 86%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Bologna have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Bologna — last game: Away to AC Milan (4-2) they had 53% of the shots (9 to 8, on target 5-3) and 34% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Monza — last game: Against Napoli (1-4) they had 43% of the shots (12 to 16, on target 5-7) and 36% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 7 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 79% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 94% of the pressure → conceded on 62′, 67′. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target. They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 46% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 3.20 → 3.00 (-6.3%, backed) · X (draw) 3.60 → 3.80 (+5.6%, drifting) · Double chance X2 2.10 → 2.20 (+4.8%, drifting) · Under 3.5 1.36 → 1.40 (+2.9%, drifting).