Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund: analysis and our pick

Bayern Munich in good form

Bayern Munich have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 6–1 home win over 1. FC Magdeburg and a 3–1 away win at Freiburg. Borussia Dortmund have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Werder Bremen and a 1–0 home win over Eintracht Frankfurt.

The head-to-head favours Bayern Munich

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Bayern Munich, 2 draws, 0 for Borussia Dortmund, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: Borussia Dortmund 1–2 Bayern Munich (22 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 60%. Bayern Munich score 4.0 and concede 1.6 a game, Borussia Dortmund 1.2 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 2.7 + 1.2 = 3.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 91% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Bayern Munich · 69%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 75%). Most likely score: 2–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 91%: the model expects 3.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Bayern Munich have the highest probability (69%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 75% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Bayern Munich — last game: Against 1. FC Magdeburg (6-1) they had 68% of the shots (19 to 9, on target 8-2) and 63% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 6, conceded 1 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 64% of the shots and 70% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Borussia Dortmund — last game: Against Werder Bremen (3-2) they had 50% of the shots (12 to 12, on target 4-6) and 57% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 16′–30′: pressed with 73% of the pressure → goal on 17′. 30′–46′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. 46′–61′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Borussia Dortmund) 7.50 → 8.50 (+13.3%, drifting) · Under 2.5 4.00 → 3.50 (-12.5%, backed) · Under 1.5 9.00 → 8.00 (-11.1%, backed) · Not both to score 2.62 → 2.38 (-9.2%, backed).