Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart: analysis and our pick

Bayer Leverkusen in good form

Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–2 home win over 1. FC Nürnberg and a 0–3 away defeat at 1899 Hoffenheim. VfB Stuttgart have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at SC Paderborn 07 and a 2–3 home defeat to Borussia Monchengladbach.

The head-to-head favours VfB Stuttgart

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Bayer Leverkusen, 2 draws, 2 for VfB Stuttgart, with 4.0 goals a game. Most recently: VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer Leverkusen (9 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 35%. Bayer Leverkusen score 2.6 and concede 1.2 a game, VfB Stuttgart 1.4 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.3 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 86% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Bayer Leverkusen · 53%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 86%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Bayer Leverkusen have the highest probability (53%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Bayer Leverkusen — last game: Against 1. FC Nürnberg (5-2) they had 83% of the shots (24 to 5, on target 10-3) and 59% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → goal on 41′. 45′–60′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → goal on 49′. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 70′. Over the last 5 they averaged 66% of the shots and 72% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. VfB Stuttgart — last game: Away to SC Paderborn 07 (1-0) they had 50% of the shots (17 to 17, on target 4-5) and 64% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 Red card on 37′ for SC Paderborn 07 (Laurin Curda): the opponent played with ten for ~53 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 26% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (VfB Stuttgart) 4.00 → 4.33 (+8.3%, drifting) · 1 (Bayer Leverkusen) 1.75 → 1.67 (-4.6%, backed) · X (draw) 4.33 → 4.50 (+3.9%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.