Ajax v AZ Alkmaar: analysis and our pick

Ajax in good form

Ajax have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Sparta Rotterdam and a 2–0 home win over Atalanta. AZ Alkmaar have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to FC Twente and a 4–0 away win at Ararat-Armenia.

The head-to-head favours AZ Alkmaar

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Ajax, 2 draws, 3 for AZ Alkmaar, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Ajax (8 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 65%. Ajax score 2.2 and concede 1.2 a game, AZ Alkmaar 1.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.9 = 3.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 88% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · AZ Alkmaar · 44%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 69%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 88%: the model expects 3.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: AZ Alkmaar have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 69% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Ajax — last game: Away to Sparta Rotterdam (2-1) they had 59% of the shots (16 to 11, on target 4-5) and 59% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 37% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. AZ Alkmaar — last game: Against FC Twente (0-2) they had 45% of the shots (13 to 16, on target 5-5) and 51% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 🟥 Red card on 88′ for FC Twente (Daouda Weidmann): the opponent played with ten for ~2 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.88 → 3.10 (+7.6%, drifting) · X (draw) 4.20 → 4.50 (+7.1%, drifting) · Under 1.5 7.00 → 6.50 (-7.1%, backed) · Double chance 12 1.22 → 1.18 (-3.3%, backed).