AC Milan v Inter: analysis and our pick

AC Milan in good form

AC Milan have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–4 home defeat to Bologna and a 2–0 away win at Udinese. Inter have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Venezia and a 2–1 home win over Fiorentina.

The head-to-head favours AC Milan

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for AC Milan, 2 draws, 0 for Inter, with 1.8 goals a game. Most recently: AC Milan 1–1 Inter (5 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 55%. AC Milan score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game, Inter 2.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.6 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Inter · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 61%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: Inter have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 61% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

AC Milan — last game: Against Bologna (2-4) they had 47% of the shots (8 to 9, on target 3-5) and 66% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 4 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs. Inter — last game: Away to Venezia (2-0) they had 57% of the shots (16 to 12, on target 2-4) and 67% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 45′–60′: pressed with 73% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 67% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.50 → 2.75 (+10%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.30 → 2.10 (-8.7%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.62 → 1.73 (+6.8%, drifting) · Under 3.5 1.53 → 1.44 (-5.9%, backed).