Villarreal v Espanyol: analysis and our pick

Villarreal in good form

Villarreal have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–0 away win at Manacor and a 2–1 away win at Valencia. Espanyol have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 3–4 away defeat at Sestao River and a 1–2 away defeat at Racing Santander.

The head-to-head favours Villarreal

In the last 5 meetings: 5 wins for Villarreal, 0 draws, 0 for Espanyol, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: Villarreal 4–1 Espanyol (9 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 75%. Villarreal score 2.6 and concede 1.2 a game, Espanyol 1.2 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.3 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Villarreal · 51%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 61%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Villarreal have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 61% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Villarreal — last game: Away to Manacor (5-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 68% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Espanyol — last game: Away to Sestao River (3-4) they had 52% of the shots (16 to 15, on target 6-7) and 62% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 4 from 7 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → goal on 6′. 45′–60′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 31% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: X (draw) 4.75 → 5.25 (+10.5%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.62 → 2.75 (+5%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.20 → 2.10 (-4.5%, backed) · 2 (Espanyol) 6.25 → 6.50 (+4%, drifting).