SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05: analysis and our pick

SV Elversberg looking for a response

SV Elversberg have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to SV Darmstadt 98 and a 0–4 away defeat at RB Leipzig. FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at VfL Bochum and a 2–3 home defeat to Werder Bremen.

The head-to-head favours FSV Mainz 05

In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for SV Elversberg, 1 draw, 1 for FSV Mainz 05, with 2.5 goals a game. Most recently: SV Elversberg 0–1 FSV Mainz 05 (12 Aug 2023).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 50%. SV Elversberg score 1.0 and concede 2.4 a game, FSV Mainz 05 1.8 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 2.8 = 4.5 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · FSV Mainz 05 · 59%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 83%). Most likely score: 1–2.

Why these picks?

FSV Mainz 05 have the highest probability (59%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 1–2 is the most likely score (7%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

SV Elversberg — last game: Against SV Darmstadt 98 (0-2) they had 79% of the shots (26 to 7, on target 6-2) and 74% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 57% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. FSV Mainz 05 — last game: Away to VfL Bochum (0-2) they had 56% of the shots (10 to 8, on target 5-3) and 52% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 75′. 75′–90′: pressed with 81% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3.