Sheffield Utd v Wrexham: analysis and our pick

Wrexham have a chance to respond

Sheffield Utd have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Derby and a 1–0 away win at Bristol City. Wrexham have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Blackburn and a 4–1 home win over Preston.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Sheffield Utd, 1 draw, 2 for Wrexham, with 5.4 goals a game. Most recently: Sheffield Utd 1–2 Wrexham (21 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Sheffield Utd score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game, Wrexham 1.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.3 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Sheffield Utd · 45%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Sheffield Utd have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Sheffield Utd — last game: Against Derby (1-1) they had 69% of the shots (24 to 11, on target 9-4) and 62% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 66′ for Derby (Dion Sanderson): the opponent played with ten for ~24 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 79% of the pressure → conceded on 37′. 75′–90′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 79′. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Wrexham — last game: Away to Blackburn (0-2) they had 59% of the shots (23 to 16, on target 1-5) and 55% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 18′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 70% of the pressure → conceded on 44′. 60′–75′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.