Nice v Rennes: analysis and our pick

Nice in good form

Nice have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Stade Brestois 29 and a 1–2 away defeat at Lyon. Rennes have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Strasbourg and a 2–2 away draw with Juventus.

The head-to-head favours Rennes

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Nice, 0 draws, 3 for Rennes, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: Nice 0–4 Rennes (8 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 50%. Nice score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game, Rennes 2.8 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.4 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Nice · 44%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Nice have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Nice — last game: Away to Stade Brestois 29 (2-1) they had 41% of the shots (9 to 13, on target 2-7) and 48% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 7 on target. 45′–60′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 61′. 75′–90′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 83′. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Rennes — last game: Against Strasbourg (3-0) they had 54% of the shots (14 to 12, on target 4-4) and 47% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 91% of the pressure → goal on 34′, 41′. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.