Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain: analysis and our pick
Ligue 1 · tomorrow 20:00 · Stade Océane. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Le Havre looking for a response
Le Havre have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 3–4 away defeat at Marseille and a 1–3 home defeat to Auxerre. Paris Saint Germain have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Lyon and a 4–2 home win over Barcelona.
The head-to-head favours Paris Saint Germain
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Le Havre, 1 draw, 4 for Paris Saint Germain, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Le Havre 0–1 Paris Saint Germain (28 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 70%. Le Havre score 2.4 and concede 2.4 a game, Paris Saint Germain 3.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 2.1 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Paris Saint Germain · 55%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Paris Saint Germain have the highest probability (55%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Le Havre — last game: Away to Marseille (3-4) they had 65% of the shots (20 to 11, on target 7-5) and 47% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 4 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 55% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 71% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Paris Saint Germain — last game: Against Lyon (2-0) they had 68% of the shots (17 to 8, on target 10-5) and 68% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 90% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 70% of the pressure → goal on 72′. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.