Casa Pia v Sporting CP: analysis and our pick

Casa Pia in good form

Casa Pia have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Estrela and a 1–0 away win at Alpendorada. Sporting CP have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Maritimo and a 1–2 home defeat to Academico Viseu.

The head-to-head favours Sporting CP

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Casa Pia, 0 draws, 5 for Sporting CP, with 3.8 goals a game. Most recently: Sporting CP 3–0 Casa Pia (16 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 45%. Casa Pia score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game, Sporting CP 2.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 0.7 + 2.6 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 85% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Sporting CP · 77%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 0–2.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 85%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Sporting CP have the highest probability (77%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 0–2 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Casa Pia — last game: Away to Estrela (2-0) they had 36% of the shots (10 to 18, on target 4-6) and 37% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 6 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 82% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target. They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs. Sporting CP — last game: Against Academico Viseu (1-2) they had 76% of the shots (28 to 9, on target 4-3) and 71% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 93% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–90′: pressed with 68% of the pressure → goal on 62′, conceded on 74′. Over the last 4 they averaged 53% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 5.00 → 5.50 (+10%, drifting) · Not both to score 1.75 → 1.91 (+9.1%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.38 → 2.20 (-7.6%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.35 → 2.50 (+6.4%, drifting).