Over 1.5 + Poisson Thursday 29 October: Køge W v Barcelona W at 93%
Daily Over 1.5 pick with Poisson + Dixon-Coles (rho = −0.13). The lambdas come from season averages, the last 10 home/away, the last 5 and the head-to-head. The 5 strongest matches of the day.
1. Køge W – Barcelona W (UEFA Champions League Women, 22:00)
Home λ 1.81 | away λ 2.43 | expected goals 4.24. Over 1.5: 93% | Over 2.5: 79% | BTTS: 77%. Køge W 3.2 goals/game at home, Barcelona W 3.4 away (last 10). Most likely score 1-2.
2. RKAV Volendam – ROHDA Raalte (KNVB Beker, 21:00)
Home λ 2.46 | away λ 1.72 | expected goals 4.18. Over 1.5: 93% | Over 2.5: 79% | BTTS: 76%. RKAV Volendam 1.7 goals/game at home, ROHDA Raalte 1.6 away (last 10). Most likely score 2-1.
3. Sparta Praha W – Torreense W (UEFA Europa Cup - Women, 19:00)
Home λ 2.37 | away λ 1.59 | expected goals 3.96. Over 1.5: 92% | Over 2.5: 76% | BTTS: 73%. Sparta Praha W 3.8 goals/game at home, Torreense W 1.5 away (last 10). Most likely score 2-1.
4. Austria Wien W – Juventus W (UEFA Champions League Women, 19:45)
Home λ 2.18 | away λ 1.42 | expected goals 3.60. Over 1.5: 89% | Over 2.5: 70% | BTTS: 68%. Austria Wien W 3.1 goals/game at home, Juventus W 2.5 away (last 10). Most likely score 1-1.
5. Phnom Penh Crown – Kitchee (AFC Champions League Two, 14:15)
Home λ 1.65 | away λ 1.93 | expected goals 3.58. Over 1.5: 88% | Over 2.5: 69% | BTTS: 70%. Phnom Penh Crown 1.4 goals/game at home, Kitchee 2.1 away (last 10). Most likely score 1-1.
The model is statistical: probabilities, not guarantees. The “Poisson Over 1.5” filter on MyGoal90 shows ✓/✗ when each match ends. 21+ · Please gamble responsibly.
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