Wofoo Tai Po v BG Pathum United: analysis and our pick
AFC Champions League Two · Thursday 29 October 14:15 · Tai Po Sports Ground. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Wofoo Tai Po in good form
Wofoo Tai Po have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–2 home win over Kitchee and a 4–2 home win over Southern District. BG Pathum United have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Chiangrai United and a 0–1 away defeat at Khon Kaen United.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 70%. Wofoo Tai Po score 2.4 and concede 1.4 a game, BG Pathum United 1.0 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.2 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Wofoo Tai Po · 45%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Wofoo Tai Po have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Wofoo Tai Po — last game: Against Kitchee (4-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 32% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target. They turn 200% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 100% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. BG Pathum United — last game: Against Chiangrai United (2-0) they had 48% of the shots (12 to 13, on target 4-3) and 60% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 Red card on 28′ for Chiangrai United (Zé Ricardo): the opponent played with ten for ~62 minutes, from very early on, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 52% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.