Szeged 2011 v Ujpest: analysis and our pick

Ujpest have a chance to respond

Szeged 2011 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–4 home defeat to Diosgyori VTK and a 2–1 away win at Karcag SE. Ujpest have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Gyori ETO FC and a 0–1 home defeat to Puskas Academy.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 60%. Szeged 2011 score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Ujpest 0.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.5 = 2.5 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Ujpest · 46%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Ujpest have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Szeged 2011 — last game: Away to Karcag SE (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Ujpest — last game: Away to Gyori ETO FC (0-1) they had 67% of the shots (24 to 12, on target 6-5) and 54% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 0′–15′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 90% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 61% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 13% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.