Sparta Praha W v Torreense W: analysis and our pick

Sparta Praha W in good form

Sparta Praha W have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 6–1 away win at Slovan Liberec W and a 1–0 away win at Prague Raptors W. Torreense W have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 away win at Sporting Braga W and a 2–3 away defeat at Sporting CP W.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 90%, both teams scored 50%. Sparta Praha W score 3.4 and concede 0.4 a game, Torreense W 3.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 2.4 + 1.6 = 4.0 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Sparta Praha W · 54%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 76%). Most likely score: 2–1.

Why these picks?

Sparta Praha W have the highest probability (54%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Sparta Praha W — last game: Away to Farul Constanţa W (4-0) they had 59% of the shots (16 to 11, on target 8-2). From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 3 they averaged 68% of the shots and 78% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 3). They turn 56% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. Red cards: 1 theirs. Torreense W — last game: Against Metalist 1925 W (4-1) they had 65% of the shots (15 to 8, on target 8-3). From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 57% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 2). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs.