Shanghai Shenhua v Machida Zelvia: analysis and our pick

Machida Zelvia have a chance to respond

Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Sichuan Jiuniu and a 3–1 away win at Wuhan Three Towns. Machida Zelvia have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Vissel Kobe and a 5–0 away win at Shimizu S-pulse.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Shanghai Shenhua score 2.2 and concede 0.8 a game, Machida Zelvia 2.0 and 0.0. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.8 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Machida Zelvia · 46%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 83%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Machida Zelvia have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Shanghai Shenhua — last game: Away to Sichuan Jiuniu (1-2) they had 59% of the shots (20 to 14, on target 4-4) and 63% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: pressed with 68% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 90′. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 19% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Machida Zelvia — last game: Away to Vissel Kobe (0-0) they had 51% of the shots (19 to 18, on target 7-6) and 50% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 6 shots on target and held (no goals). 75′–90′: under 70% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 74% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 0% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.