Rosenborg W v Brøndby W: analysis and our pick

Brøndby W have a chance to respond

Rosenborg W have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Hønefoss W and a 1–1 home draw with Brann W. Brøndby W have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Midtjylland W and a 1–1 away draw with Køge W.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Rosenborg W score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game, Brøndby W 1.8 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Brøndby W · 37%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 83%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Brøndby W have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Rosenborg W — last game: Away to Vålerenga W (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 67% of the shots and 83% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 2). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 100% of theirs. Brøndby W — last game: Against Midtjylland W (1-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 68% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 2). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 80% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.