Remo v Botafogo: analysis and our pick
Serie A · Thursday 29 October 02:30 · Estadio Evandro Almeida. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Botafogo have a chance to respond
Remo have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Cruzeiro and a 1–1 home draw with RB Bragantino. Botafogo have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Internacional and a 1–0 home win over Chapecoense-sc.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 60%. Remo score 0.6 and concede 1.0 a game, Botafogo 0.6 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.0 = 2.5 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Remo · 46%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Remo have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Remo — last game: Away to Cruzeiro (0-1) they had 50% of the shots (9 to 9, on target 2-4) and 53% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 13% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs. Botafogo — last game: Away to Internacional (0-3) they had 39% of the shots (11 to 17, on target 4-7) and 56% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 7 on target. 30′–45′: under 69% of the pressure → conceded on 32′, 42′. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 11% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.