Real Ávila v Unionistas de Salamanca: analysis and our pick

Real Ávila looking for a response

Real Ávila have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Atlético Paso and a 1–2 away defeat at Real Valladolid II. Unionistas de Salamanca have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Athletic Club II and a 0–1 away defeat at Racing Ferrol.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Real Ávila score 0.6 and concede 1.8 a game, Unionistas de Salamanca 1.0 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.0 = 2.1 goals.

Our pick

Draw (X) · 34%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

The 1-X-2 probabilities are close and the draw comes out on top in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Real Ávila — last game: Against Numancia (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Unionistas de Salamanca — last game: Away to Racing Ferrol (0-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 1 theirs.