Phnom Penh Crown v Kitchee: analysis and our pick

Phnom Penh Crown in good form

Phnom Penh Crown have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at National Defense and a 1–1 home draw with Life Sihanoukville. Kitchee have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–4 away defeat at Wofoo Tai Po and a 5–1 away win at Warriors.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 70%. Phnom Penh Crown score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Kitchee 2.6 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.9 = 3.6 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Kitchee · 44%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 69%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Kitchee have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 69% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Phnom Penh Crown — last game: Away to Gangwon FC (2-1) they had 20% of the shots (3 to 12, on target 3-6). From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 20% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target. They turn 133% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Kitchee — last game: Away to Wofoo Tai Po (2-4) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 38% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target. They turn 150% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 125% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.