Mathare United v Tusker: analysis and our pick

Tusker have a chance to respond

Mathare United have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Migori Youth and a 0–1 away defeat at KCB. Tusker have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Singida Black Stars and a 0–1 home defeat to Singida Black Stars.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 30%, both teams scored 35%. Mathare United score 0.4 and concede 0.6 a game, Tusker 1.2 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 0.8 = 1.8 goals.

Our pick

Draw (X) · 36%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 73%). Most likely score: 0–0.

Why these picks?

The 1-X-2 probabilities are close and the draw comes out on top in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 0–0 is the most likely score (18%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Mathare United — last game: Away to KCB (0-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Tusker — last game: Away to Singida Black Stars (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged null% of the shots..