Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel Aviv: analysis and our pick

Maccabi Tel Aviv in good form

Maccabi Tel Aviv have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 6–2 home win over Hapoel Haifa and a 0–0 away draw with Beitar Jerusalem. Hapoel Tel Aviv have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 away win at Hapoel Katamon and a 1–0 home win over Ironi Tiberias.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 50%. Maccabi Tel Aviv score 2.4 and concede 0.8 a game, Hapoel Tel Aviv 2.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.3 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Maccabi Tel Aviv · 44%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Maccabi Tel Aviv have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Maccabi Tel Aviv — last game: Against Hapoel Haifa (6-2) they had 67% of the shots (24 to 12, on target 9-6) and 61% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 6, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → goal on 15′. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 90% of the pressure → conceded on 38′. Over the last 5 they averaged 65% of the shots and 64% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 34% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Hapoel Tel Aviv — last game: Away to Hapoel Katamon (3-0) they had 61% of the shots (11 to 7, on target 4-1) and 49% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents.