Kozakken Boys v Utrecht: analysis and our pick

Utrecht have a chance to respond

Kozakken Boys have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Barendrecht and a 0–0 away draw with Hoek. Utrecht have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with PEC Zwolle and a 2–1 away win at FC Twente.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 80%. Kozakken Boys score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game, Utrecht 1.6 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.2 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Kozakken Boys · 50%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Kozakken Boys have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Kozakken Boys — last game: Away to Hoek (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Kozakken Boys). Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 2 theirs. Utrecht — last game: Against PEC Zwolle (1-1) they had 71% of the shots (22 to 9, on target 5-5) and 60% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.