Kenya Police v Ulinzi Stars: analysis and our pick

Ulinzi Stars have a chance to respond

Kenya Police have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to AFC Leopards and a 1–1 away draw with Migori Youth. Ulinzi Stars have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Mara Sugar and a 1–1 away draw with Homeboyz.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 30%, both teams scored 50%. Kenya Police score 0.8 and concede 1.0 a game, Ulinzi Stars 0.8 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 0.9 = 1.8 goals.

Our pick

Draw (X) · 37%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 74%). Most likely score: 0–0.

Why these picks?

The 1-X-2 probabilities are close and the draw comes out on top in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 74% from the same lambdas. 0–0 is the most likely score (19%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Kenya Police — last game: Away to Migori Youth (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Ulinzi Stars — last game: Against Mara Sugar (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.